Minoru Morita Unravels Japan

Weekly commentary by the author of Curing Japan's America Addiction

A Chin Music Press production

Irresponsible Leaders Won't Call for What We Really Need It is impossible to fix this very expensive financial mess while also financing two very expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The G-7 was irresponsible in not demanding a cease-fire from the US. And why are Japanese politicians and the mass media also silent on the issue? (10/20/08)

The Bush administration is still planning to continue the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. It doesn't even think about stopping them. The lameduck president's term is over in January 2009, but if a Republican administration remains in the White House, both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will continue. If Obama wins and a Democratic administration takes over, the Iraq war may end, but fighting in Afghanistan will continue. Even if the US has an Obama administration, it will continue to wage war.

As the US-led financial crisis deepens, Japan's corporate community is in danger of falling into pandemonium. A lot of companies are having trouble securing financing for the year-end -- and it is not only the smaller companies that stare bankruptcy in the face. A chain of bankruptcies would have serious consequences. We should take whatever steps are necessary to stop a potential wave of corporate failures. The government needs to mobilize to protect companies on the financial and credit fronts, and it should do this before calling for elections.

Wars are very expensive. American economist Joseph Stiglitz recently published a book that argues the real cost of the Iraq War is $3 trillion (The $3 Trillion War, Japanese translation from Tokuma Shoten). At the exchange rate as of October 9, 2008, that is the equivalent of 300 trillion yen. The US has spent an enormous amount of money on the Afghanistan War alone.

The financial crisis begun by the US poses a serious challenge. The American government is asking other countries to help bail it out, but as long as it continues its Iraq and Afghanistan wars, giving the US money would be like pouring water into a bottomless bucket. Even if Japan and several other countries agree to US requests and offer large loans to help end the financial crisis, there is a very good chance that one way or another, the money will be used in the war effort. That means Japan's money would be financing the wars, and we'd be bogged down in a quagmire.

Let me repeat: If the Japanese government gives in to the US government's request and adopts a policy of loaning money to the US to quell the financial crisis and if both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars continue, it would be like pouring water into a bottomless bucket. This is so basic that even a child could grasp it.

But there is no one in this country arguing this very point. It's not only the government, the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito Party that is running from this issue — the Democratic Party of Japan and the mass media also remain mute. It's as if they are making efforts to block both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars from their minds.)

The first thing we should do to calm the current global crisis is to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will prove impossible to solve the financial crisis without ending the wars.)

Deal with the Urgent Issues before Calling for Elections (10/20/08)

Calling for dissolution of the lower house and the subsequent election is a high-priority political issue. But there's one big obstacle that needs to be grappled with before an election is scheduled: the current economic downturn. While this is a global crisis and not one that Japan can solve by itself, the government needs to at least enact policies that would prevent massive bankruptcies. Once that is taken care of, the lower house can be dissolved.

As the US-led financial crisis deepens, Japan's corporate community is in danger of falling into pandemonium. A lot of companies are having trouble securing financing for the year-end — and it is not only the smaller companies that stare bankruptcy in the face. A chain of bankruptcies would have serious consequences. We should take whatever steps are necessary to stop a potential wave of corporate failures. The government needs to mobilize to protect companies on the financial and credit fronts, and it should do this before calling for elections.)

A lot of families are facing bankruptcy too. Their incomes haven't gone up, and they must bear increasing financial burdens. Prices are on the rise, stretching family budgets. Financial institutions are demanding more debt repayment. Credit card companies are beginning to limit card usage. If nothing is done, it's very possible that we'll see a huge spike in personal bankruptcies.

We need emergency policies that defend our livelihood. The government needs to turn around its financial policies and start lowering taxes and relying more on public-works spending.)

The world has entered a difficult period. Japan must begin to discuss how we will live through this. As the age of Pax Americana comes to an end, Japan should re-examine its alliance with the US.

We can't shy away from debating which direction to take: neoliberalism or modified capitalism. We must also have a serious discussion about all aspects of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and whether the Japanese people want to live as a peaceful nation.)

All this should be done before we hold elections. The current political debate is far too small in scope. The election should be an occasion for charting Japan's new course.)

First Things First: The leading political parties should push back the timing of a general election to at least the end of the year and come up with an effective economic policy to deal with the dangerous global financial meltdown (10/10/08)

Prime Minister Taro Aso was correct when he said, "The people want us to put priority on economic policies, not Diet dissolution." The problem is whether or not the Aso administration can come up with an effective policy. A majority of the Japanese people are very much in favor of taking urgent measures to revive the economy. If we don't do anything, there's a very good chance that many small and midsize businesses, including mom-and-pop shops, will not be able to hold on. The government must find a way to avoid this outcome. A lot of businesses need help preventing bankruptcy between now and the end of the year. This is the government's responsibility. Let me repeat: We must stave off a collapse of the Japanese economy. This is the government's most pressing concern. Dissolution of the Diet can occur later.

Stretching out the timing of the general election in a bid to postpone the inevitable is not wise. But the government should take at least two months to put all its effort behind urgent measures to boost the economy. The supplementary budget the government is focused on now is like a few drops of water on parched soil. For a supplementary package to have a positive effect, it would have to be much larger. The administration shouldn't hesitate to enact deficit spending to cover our shortfall. Politicians shouldn't restrain themselves just because of the foolish target of having a primary budget surplus by 2011. Instead, they should be focusing all their efforts on the urgent measures needed to steady our staggering economy. Bold action is the secret to success. Let me repeat: Japan's politicians should be focused on defending the nation's economy.")

My Views on Koizumi's Retirement & The Subsequent Media Spin Several news organizations interviewed me to get my comments on the former prime minister's plans to retire from politics (10/03/08)

[1] Impressions of the media coverage

Once former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi announced his retirement from politics, several media organizations ran with stories exploring the "merits and demerits of Koizumi politics." This is odd because there weren't any "merits." It was all "demerits." I think the mass media mentions the supposed merits to justify its role in stoking "Koizumi fever" during his reign.

[2] A summary of my comments to several news organizations

Koizumi has left Japan deeply scarred. First, his administration facilitated the destruction of Japan's good traditions and way of life. It is no overstatement to say he destroyed Japanese society. The end result of his structural revolution is to have created a society of haves and have-nots. Thanks to him, the majority of the Japanese people are struggling. He abandoned the provinces. His policies crushed Japan's social welfare (medicine, pensions, nursing). They pushed many young people into the category of the "working poor." Hope has disappeared. Morals have declined. Japan's fate has been intertwined even tighter with the fate of the US. There is nothing redeeming about Koizumi politics. The Koizumi Revolution was nothing more than a forced march toward US Republican-style neoliberalism. Japan became a proving ground for Republican theories.

The looming general election is going to be a day of reckoning for Koizumi and his legacy. Candidates still trumpeting the Koizumi way are likely to be judged harshly by the voters. The Koizumi sympathizers, whether they be in the ruling coalition or the opposition, need to be thrashed at the polls.

There will soon be an opening for Japan to truly turn away from Koizumi, American neoliberalism and the US in general. As the real Koizumi escapes, we need to corner his legacy once and for all. Judgment day is near.

The Government Japan Needs It is time for a democratically inclined administration that puts priority on the people and our national interest (9/25/08)

Neoliberalism and democracy can't exist together. It's time for us to stress democracy.

Japan has a democratic political system and a capitalist economy. Modern Japanese society consists of people acting in both the political and economic realms. Each one of us is a free citizen. We are also consumers and investors.

A capitalistic society becomes stable when capitalism is balanced against democracy. But because our capitalistic system has been driven recklessly toward a kind of market fundamentalism, the balance is completely off and the citizens are less free. Unions have lost power. Many workers have lost their jobs. Social welfare programs have been greatly reduced. The structural reform that hid behind the name of "deregulation" took aim at the weakest of us and forced more hardship upon them. The strong have profited from the changes, but the weak are made more miserable.

Japan must revive its brand of democratic capitalism. Citizens must recover their basic human rights. The Bush administration has made the majority of us unhappy with its beautiful sounding neoliberal globalism — a series of structural reforms that bring us market fundamentalism, small government, deregulation and less social welfare. Neoliberal globalism brings misery to the people while also destroying capitalism. The downfall of Lehman Brothers points to the defeat of neoliberalism.

We must turn from the reckless course neoliberalism has put us on. To do that, we need to resuscitate our democracy.

A new government replacing the LDP-New Komeito coalition must be dedicated to reviving democracy. It must promise to defend our basic human rights and Japan's Constitution. And it must act on that promise.

Stark Contrasts: The DPJ avoids an election while the LDP embraces a full-fledged and festive party race (9/17/08)

I visited Fukushima City on September 7 to give a lecture and met two old friends who hold seats in the upper house for the Democratic Party of Japan. One of them, who was once a Diet member for the Liberal Democratic Party, had this to say: "Ozawa is a genius. He predicted that the lower house would be dissolved within this year, setting the stage for a general election. He nailed it. Ozawa really is a genius. If the party unifies behind him, it will win. No problem." He was full of confidence that party Chair Ichiro Ozawa held the key to victory. There is a group of true Ozawa believers within the DPJ who support the party chief wholeheartedly. If a majority of the country feels like these party members, then a DPJ victory certainly seems possible. The key is whether Ozawa can inspire this sort of support from the Japanese people.

Later at Tokyo Station, I met another old friend who is a DPJ Diet member and has been with the party since it formed. Here's what he told me: "I read your website, Morita-san. I share your concerns about Ozawa's statement in Sekai that Japan should join the ISAF in Afghanistan. I believe we should protect Article 9. Under an Ozawa administration, I fear we will join the Afghan War.")

The comment published in the general-interest magazine Sekai which he was referring to appeared in the November 2007 issue. Ozawa was quoted as saying, "If I am forming an administration and setting diplomacy and defense policy, then based on the situation in Afghanistan today, I would like to have Japan join the International Security Assistance Force."

I had hoped that the DPJ would hold an open party election where a variety of ideas could be discussed, but the party chose not to hold such a race. If this discussion had taken place, then the issue of joining ISAF and the oft-criticized idea expressed by Ozawa that the UN reigns supreme could have been aired before the voters. It's a shame that the party remained silent..

The party executives declare that the members fully support Ozawa, but my informal survey indicates that just below the surface, there is a lot of arm-twisting going on. A large majority of the DPJ is remaining mum on this issue. but several DPJ members have told me that Ozawa's aides are making everyone toe the line.

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda watched the DPJ evade its own party election, then made his move. He resigned as prime minister and LDP president and set out to restore his party's reputation by having it hold an open election in stark contrast to the DPJ. The fate of the LDP-Komeito coalition rests on this gamble.

"Even so, this doesn't change the advantage the DPJ has," said a friend of mine who is an elections expert. "The burden left behind by Koizumi's structural reforms will prove too big for the LDP. The trend among voters to change things once and for all won't go away."

At this point, I see the race as even.

Politicians Can't Afford to Ignore the Perilous Global Situation: It's ridiculous to even consider having Japan join ISAF in Afghanistan (9/10/08)

I talked recently with international expert K-san, who had some very interesting comments that I'd like to share:

"Pakistan is becoming the second Afghanistan. It is in extremely dicey shape right now. The Bush Republicans are using the country as a tool in the US presidential election. America is once again showing its bad habits.)

"The Western media is beating up on Russia over the Georgia conflict, but it is well known that the Americans had a lot of agent provocateurs on the ground there before the war started. A lot of people are saying that Bush's Republican Party is trying to use the conflict to its advantage in the elections. This may be another example of America's bad habits.

"If the Americans can expand the war, they may be able to dissipate the growing sense of unease and economic gloom at home, but that sort of move will only deepen the dangers we face. The cracks that have begun to show in American society will spread. This is quite a dangerous situation. Japanese politicians are not even considering the appropriate international stance. They are shut down. This also is worrisome."

I am also worried about the way the world is turning recently. Japanese politicians are looking inward now, and that's a dangerous stance to take. Instead, Japan should be forwarding peace initiatives.

More from Minoru Morita:
Curing Japan's America Addiction:
From the CMP store
From Amazon
From Powell's
From Amazon in Japan
Morita on the web:
Morita Research Institute
Morita on our blog
Review in The Japan Times
Profile of Morita on Japaninfusion.com